Alassane Ouattara. Image: Wikipedia

Earlier today, the Malian Parliament speaker, Dioncounda Traore, was sworn in as interim president of the country. A spokeswoman for the US Department of State described this as a “very good step” for Mali, and that’s because it is. Indeed, I would go further: in my view, leadership is back in Africa. Perhaps for the first time in the continent’s history, an official body, the economic community of west African states (Ecowas), has succeeded in ending a coup in a nearby nation. That’s something to celebrate.

Alassane Ouattara, who is president of Ivory Coast and Ecowas chairman, played a major role in bringing about this development by advocating the introduction of economic sanctions. On April 2, he announced: “All diplomatic, economic, financial measures and others are applicable from today and will not be lifted until the re-establishment of constitutional order.” He also discussed the possible introduction of military troops. (There may be a motive for his strong stance. Ivory Coast has an unstable history and has been subject to many coups and plots of its own over the years.)

Still the situation in Mali is far from perfect, and stability is tenuous. The next step is to focus on restoring legal governmental power in northern Mali, which could otherwise destabilize the region and become a new Afghanistan, and a base for Al Qaeda.

Although presidential campaigns in US and France are dominating the agenda in those countries, foreign policy should not be forgotten over the next few months. These two nations in particular should support and uphold Mali’s struggling democracy (after all it is a Francophone nation, and a former French colony).  Members of the Malian diaspora who live in the US, Europe or Canada, should also play a part in their country’s future well-being, and not just observe from afar.

Now that leaders like Ouattara, or Dr. Jean Ping, who is chairperson of the commission of the African Union, are working together to promote peace in the region, the rest of the world should be ready to help in whatever ways are most practical. We ought to support such individuals: for after the global economy is revived, the next thing to build is a community of global leaders who share a commitment to a safe and peaceful world.

Africa has a bright future, and that’s a vision we should all wish to foster. For that reason, the New York Forum Institute is offering a platform for dialog and discussion, at Libreville in Gabon this June. I hope that you can join me there.

Richard Attias, Founder, The New York Forum Institute
Founder The New York Forum and The New York Forum AFRICA

Image credit: www.writing-wrongs.org

While I usually speak about economic issue or geopolitic or global issues, today I would like to discuss an issue that’s about care for our kids, about the next generation and about a specific danger they are facing: suicide.

When we think of the threats that our children face out in the world, we may worry about stranger-danger, or tired car-drivers who aren’t focussed on the road, or a host of other possible things that could affect their safety. But in fact suicide is one of the greatest causes of death amongst young people: the third leading cause of death for young people between the ages of 15 and 24. This figure is pretty shocking. But the good news is that it suicide preventable.

The problem with suicidality is that it is frequently misdiagnosed and therefore goes untreated. Dr. Kelly Posner, from the New York State Psychiatric Institute, says that 50% of people who commit suicide have seen their primary care doctor in the month before they died. “We need more screening and more of the right kind of treatment,” she said in a recent interview with New York Family magazine. “I worry much more about undertreatment than overtreatment.”

Posner and a group of researchers from Columbia University have developed a sophisticated and scientifically validated measure to assess how at risk particular individuals may be. It is an evidence-based screening process called the Columbia Suicide Severity Rating Scale (known by the acronym C-SSRS). The program launched in November 2011 and has been welcomed by the medical community.

The process is simple. A questionnaire is distributed across jails, schools, hospitals, and other institutions, and asks a direct set of questions: “Have you wished you were dead or wished you could go to sleep and not wake up?” Or again, “Have you actually had any thoughts of killing yourself?” The subjects rank their thoughts on a five-point scale ranging from 1, the wish to die, to 5, having a plan and intent to commit suicide.

It’s quick, efficient, and clear. Individuals who give high-rated answers are those who are most vulnerable and who need attention. “In the past, people would only ask about a suicide attempt,” Posner has told ABC news. “You would miss the person who bought the gun yesterday or put the noose around their neck, (or the person) collecting or buying pills, writing a will or suicide note.”

Thanks to the remarkable work of Dr. Posner and scientists like her, suicide is becoming less of a taboo. If depression is soon going to be one of the most debilitating illnesses in the world, as the WHO projects, we’re going to have to develop reliable tools to measure it and appropriate forms of response. This project goes a way toward achieving that and toward assuring, as far as possible, the healthy and happy development of our kids. And that’s something to celebrate.

Image by fishhawk on Flickr

Last week in Rabat, Morocco, we launched the Global Food Security Forum, which was created as an initiative of OCP Group (the world’s leading provider of phosphates based in Morocco). We felt the particularly urgent need to do this now, because as climate change affects weather patterns across the globe, and political tensions flare up, food security will become one of the most pressing issues for the world’s leaders to deal with – if it isn’t already.

We challenged the 200 experts in the field gathered with us to “think differently”. We need a Big Idea – preferably many of them – to push forward in every area of this topic, and to redress the global balance between providers, achieve some parity in pricing, and stop the trading of food as a commodity that serves merely to inflate stock market prices.

And these experts responded to our challenge in force – in two hours, we captured 2,000 suggestions and together, we spent the next 36 hours trying to find these Big Ideas. We threw out the rule books, and research, and data – and looked afresh a every facet of food security. We cannot afford to wait any longer.

Right now, the statistics are concerning. Across the world, 850 million people in 77 lower-income countries are food insecure, according to the US Department of Agriculture. Lack of access to adequate food is closely linked to poverty. War, disease, environmental degradation and a host of other issues limit people’s access to enough nourishment to live a healthy life.

In many regions access to food is a problem of worrying proportions. The famine in Somalia has officially ended, but the UN estimates that 325,000 children there are still acutely malnourished. In Yemen, Unicef has warned that rates of malnourishment among children are unacceptably high due to chronic poverty, conflict and drought. Many other nations are grappling with a similar fate.

The growth of the world’s population presents the biggest challenge. The US State Department estimates that to we will need to increase global food production by 70% before 2050. That’s a staggering figure.

Despite all these challenges, there are many reasons to be hopeful. A study published by the US Department of Agriculture found that in 2010 and 2011 there was a decline in the number of food insecure people, in spite of high food commodity prices. Over the next decace the department projects that the number of people suffering from a lack of food will decrease by 16% — that’s nearly 140 million.

At its core, it’s an economic issue. Governments must empower farmers and figure out ways to make the sector more exciting (sexier, even) to young people. It’s about training, trade policy and about developing effective public-private partnerships. As Norman Uphoff, Director of the Cornell Institute for Public Affairs, pointed out at the Forum’s closing session, “We need to look at profitability and productivity. We must engage with farmers’ reality, challenges, their needs and their aspirations. We must promote solidarity with farmers – it isn’t them, but us. We should promote farmer-to farmer peer support and knowledge sharing.”

Much work remains to be done but at the Global Food Security Forum there was plenty of cause for optimism. Roberto Rodrigues, Coordinator, Getulio Vargas Foundation Agribusiness Center, summed up the mood: “For the first time, I have heard everyone speak with one voice that agriculture is a business. We need to attract young people and we can only do that if nobility is returned to the profession. Farmers aren’t stupid and they don’t need to be poor. We have heard some real concrete actions. Democracy: that was the great mark of this meeting. Everybody had a voice.”

Last year a stream of articles appeared in the Financial Times and other publications about Africa’s swift growth. The momentum continues and only last week, The Economist had a feature on Twitter use in Africa. The consensus seems clear: Africa has reached a turning point. That’s why the New York Forum is launching NYF AFRICA in June this year.

Here are the phenomena that mean good news for the African continent. It possesses a bounty of natural resources, being rich in copper, gold and oil; its service economy is developing and industrial production is on the increase; and many African countries have a growing middle class, as a generation of well-educated young people enters the work place.

These shifts affect certain countries more than others: Nigeria has been benefiting from its oil resources. South Africa is pondering giving the state a greater stake in its mineral wealth. Gabon, where the NYFA will take place, is endeavoring to showcase its spectacular landscape as a tourist attraction, and it hosted Africa’s Cup of Nations football tournament this month.

However, the process is neither simple nor easy. Most Africans continue to live in poverty, surviving on less than $2 a day. Nigeria has recently been wrecked by terrorism and religious conflict, and elsewhere, corruption, malnutrition and a poor infrastructure are hindering faster progress.

Some of these problems contain the seeds of the future however. An underdeveloped infrastructure and banking system has allowed the burgeoning of a sophisticated telecommunications industry, which allows individuals to do their banking by phone. And a young population makes change and innovation more likely. In an interview with CNN last year, the Nigerian-American journalist Dayo Olopade observed:

There are ways of doing more with less that are very organic to the African ecosystem, and I think in general in the 21st century there’s a very important recognition that we need to all do more with less, and where better to look that the place that has been doing this for centuries?

We at the New York Forum are very interested in this question, and we share Olopade’s optimism about Africa. We look forward to talking about all of these issues at the NYFA in June.

Since I was born in Africa 50 years ago, I know that Africa’s time will come: it’s now!

Bringing together a diverse range of high profile speakers from across the world, the three-day event will address the big issues that governments and businesses are facing. At the heart of it all, during this period of economic fragility, is job creation. We believe that the entrepreneurial spirit will be a part of this in the future.

The GCF is held in Riyadh and was created by the Saudi Arabian General Investment Authority in 2006 (HM King Abdullah Bin Abdulaziz is its patron). It is an annual meeting of business leaders, politicians, intellectuals and journalists that aims to nurture dialogue on issues relating to local, regional and global economic and social development – currently the only event of its kind.

For many reasons, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is a particularly apposite venue for this conversation. It is a leading country amongst Arab nations, and the largest country in the Gulf. Over the past five years it has shot up the global ladder, jumping from 67^th place to 11th place in the World Bank/International Monetary Fund’s (WB/IMF) “Ease of Doing Business Report.”

In this context it’s no surprise that levels of foreign investment have improved. A UN report on Trade and Development noted last year that Saudi Arabia receives some of the highest amounts of foreign investment in the world. Recently, FDI has increased by 831%, from $20.5 billion in 2004 to $170 billion in 2010, and now comprises nearly 40 percent of the country’s GDP. Such figures are pertinent – and impressive – in today’s floundering global economy.

Over the past three days, some truly creative questions have been asked at the GCF. Dr Joseph Adelegan, president of the Green Globe Trust wondered: “Is a successful business only one that makes a profit?” And the founder and CEO of MotoCzysz explained why environmentally friendly products take longer to get to a market: there is, Michael Czysz said, a “reluctance to change the order of things and economies of scale, and time”.

Czysz had some good advice for firms that want to be nimble. “The people who can make the greatest shifts in behavior and be most innovative are in small companies.”

So how can entrepreneurs help the world emerge from its economic turmoil? We recognize that education is a vital part of the process, and that’s why Saudi Arabia’s Minister for Education, HH Prince Faisal bin Abdullah, will give the GCF’s keynote speech.

With all of this in mind, we think the discussion is a worthwhile one, and we hope it will continue long after the GCF is over – online and in person.

Image credit: Paris Descartes

It was unfortunate that so much had been pinned on France’s triple-A credit rating – not just president Sarkozy’s electoral future but that of the Eurozone more generally. Last week S&P downgraded the French rating to AA+, along with eight other European countries. Austria too lost its AAA status, Italy and Spain fell two notches and the ratings of Malta, Cyprus, Slovakia and Slovenia were cut. Unlucky Portugal had its debt consigned to junk status.

It’s bad news for Nicolas Sarkozy who is facing elections in a just few months. In a confession to advisors leaked to the media last year he said, “If France loses its AAA, I’m dead”.

But analysts have been wondering more broadly what this means for the Eurozone. S&P also downgraded the Eurozone bailout fund, the EFSF, arguing that it didn’t have enough triple-A guarantors to retain that status.

At this stage, so many big economies have been downgraded that the loss of a triple A seems to be less of a big deal than it would have been five years ago. People have been quick to point out that when the US was downgraded last year, the results were underwhelming; despite a lot of anxious talk, the implications for the US have so far been small.

But Europe is in a particularly fragile state right now, and after a period of calm, there is a sense that the crisis is back on. Worries about Greece are creeping back as time is running out for it to reach an agreement with lenders.

All in all the situation might appear rather bleak, but there are some silver linings. The other main credit rating agency, Moody’s, has for now let France keep its triple-A rating.  Nor was this the blanket downgrade that some policy-makers had feared. Germany has retained its high score. The bottom line is, it could have been worse — so let’s hope it doesn’t get worse.

http://bit.ly/yLOiih

It’s a well known fact that exercise is vital to our mental and physical health. This is why the meeting of the Doha Pre-forum GOALS – Gathering of All Leaders in Sport — produced by Richard Attias and Associates, is putting sports at the heart of its agenda. On January 7-8 2012, fifty top policymakers, innovators, sports scientists, doctors, academics, NGO leaders, head of federations, and corporate executives met with in Doha at the Aspire Zone in Qatar, to discuss how sport could improve economies and society and the lives of women and people in cities.

As preparations gain speed for the FIFA World Cup in 2022, Qatar is transforming into a prime destination for sports. With the sophisticated facilities at the Aspire Zone Foundation, and the Aspire Academy — one of the world’s leading elite sports institutes — it is fast becoming a regional and international sporting hub. The Aspire Zone Foundation boasts some of the world’s finest sport stadia and venues. It came to international prominence through its successful staging of the 2006 Asian Games, and offers a unique sport, sports medicine, research and education destination for the international sports industry.

At the welcome ceremony on Saturday, Hassan Al-Thawadi, Chief Executive Officer of the Qatar 2022 Supreme Committee, spoke about the importance of the 2022 soccer World Cup. “From the beginning of the bidding process we always viewed the FIFA World Cup as an event with benefits that extended far beyond football. We knew that we had to create legacies that would benefit football and sport on a global scale,” he said. He pointed out the role that sport plays in the lives of young people — “Lessons in life can be learned on the pitch.”

Research shows that athletic exercise helps children psychologically as well as physically, developing their social skills and sense of team-building and fairness. At the Doha Pre-Forum GOALS meeting, Arianna Huffington interviewed the tennis genius Martina Navratilova, who talked about how important sports are to girls. “Boys are encouraged to do sports,” she said. “Girls are encouraged to be cheerleaders.” She added that there is potential for Qatar to take a central role in the future. “Qatar has the opportunity to create a blueprint for a modern society that is well-rounded.”

Sports bring broad benefits for countries too, helping to develop key industries such as tourism and to embellish urban centers. The commercialization of sports can provide an economic stimulus to a region. Speaking on behalf of His Highness Sheikh Hamad bin Hamad Al-Thani, Emir of Qatar, the Secretary General of Qatar Olympic Committee, H.E. Sheikh Saoud bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, drew on this idea. “Sports have become a mandatory development tool for most countries and corporations,” he said. “The universal values that sports can teach us are lessons that will help us rise to our potential as human beings and global citizens.”

We believe that sports are central to tackling many of the problems that the world is facing and to bettering the lives of adults and children alike. Sports activities bring people together. They inspire young people to work towards a better future. They transcend local boundaries and unite individuals across different countries and cultures. Those are our starting points for the Doha Pre-forum GOALS.

Lamido Sanusi, 2011 Forbes Africa Person of the Year Award

As I have mentioned before on this blog, one of the most pressing questions of our time is leadership – and the lack of it. Two weeks ago I had the pleasure of moderating a discussion on this topic at the MEDays in Tangiers, which is organized by the Amadeus institute, one of Morocco’s most prominent independent think-tanks.

This year, the world has faced some big economic challenges. The world’s largest economy – the US – lost its triple-A rating, the Eurozone plunged into crisis, and citizens around the world began to protest against their governments. At the same time, Europe’s leaders have not yet found a solution to their problems, and in the US, politicians failed to produce a plan to deal with the deficit. In all of this turmoil, the developing world is starting to take a new role.

This point was highlighted by Alejandro Toledo, the former president of Peru, who noted that the crisis creates opportunities. Leadership is not just a matter for China, or Europe, or the United States, he said. “Africa, Latin America, and the Arab world, have leaders.”

Toledo’s own background provides a salutary tale about success in the face of adversity: one of 16 children, seven of whom died in the first year of their lives, he went on to complete a Phd at Stanford and become president of his country. He observed that leaders must be able to make independent decisions. Those who rely too much on public opinion and approval ratings will never bring about progress.

In some regions the question is simply who are the leaders? Forbes magazine recently published  its list of the 70 most powerful people in the world, and none of them came from Africa. Yet Dr. Cheick Modibo Diarra, chairman of Microsoft Africa, who is running for the presidency of Mali, said that he encounters African leaders every day – they are just not necessarily in politics.

Lamido Sanusi, the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, pointed out that corruption remains a major problem in Africa. But he also said that Europe’s leaders face challenges, observing that following the banking crisis, none of the bankers were penalized, nor did investigations take place. “When leaders are afraid of asking questions, they will never find solutions.” (Since the conference, Forbes magazine has recognized Sanusi with the inaugural Africa Person of the Year award).

Banking regulation, and the need for it, made up a prominent part of the discussion. Toledo observed, “I’m a man who believes in the market economy but with all due respect I’m not ready to give a blank check to the bankers.” Sanusi said that we must clean up the relationship between politics and finance. The financial industry lobbies politicians and contributes to their campaigns. In these circumstances they lose sight of who they serve. “It’s very difficult for a man sitting in the White House to listen to anybody other than Wall Street,” Sanusi said. “We need a situation where leaders actually recognize that their responsibility is to the people who vote for them, and that very often the interests of those people in Wall Street is antithetical to the interests of the man on main street.”

At this particular session there were some good questions from the floor. One young man asked why countries that are so rich in natural resources often have the poorest populations. The speakers agreed that it’s not enough to depend on natural resources for income. Sanusi offered Nigeria as an example – it is Africa’s biggest oil exporter, but 90% of the population lives on less than $2 per day. “The oil industry does not create jobs,” he said. “It makes a lot of money for the industry and for the government.”

For Toledo, education is the key, and it is particularly important at a time of unrest. “We need to invest in nutrition, healthcare, in quality of education,” he said. “There is no more profitable investment  an individual or society can make than investing in the minds of the people.”

And Dr. Cheick Modibo Diarra had an optimistic message for young people. “You guys have a heavy concentration of leaders, in the next generation. Push the rest of us who are coming to retirement a little bit so that we can give you  the space for you to start shining.”

In recognition of these complex issues, next year’s New York Forum conference will invite leaders from civil society – ordinary people who are achieving great things.

See more on Youtube – Plenary : The South in the World Economic Governance: What role can it play in a renovated financial and monetary system?

• Part 1: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QLZgQghNGGo
• Part 2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6ysNcx2o60&feature=related
• Part 3: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rhW6boV8nM&feature=related
• Part 4: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wt3L0CGzWDI&feature=related

The Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance of New Zealand, Bill English, suggested that his country was a barometer for broader currents because it has such a small economy. New Zealand has been badly hit by the global economic downturn and in September its credit rating was downgraded. English said the situation changed on a daily basis. “At the moment it’s quite schizophrenic,” he said. “There’s a lot of smart money sitting in safe banks – and it can’t stay there.”

In China, by contrast, things are looking good. Anthony Nightingale, the managing director of Jardine Matheson Holdings, said that when he first visited the country in 1975, life there was extremely restricted. He recalled how everyone wore the same clothes and only four colors were permitted. Ever since China’s entry into the WTO, things have changed dramatically. “China is engaged in the most amazing transformation,” Nightingale said.

China also faces challenges, as the government tries to steer growth from being export-based and dependant on public spending, to growth that is fueled by consumerism. China’s overheated property market, especially residential property, has been garnering some anxious headlines, but even here, Nightingale was sanguine. He pointed out that large numbers of people are continuing to flood into the cities all the time. “There is rising wealth,” he said. “So actually the demand will meet the supply. It is still a very attractive place to invest.”

On Europe there was less certainty however. Three scenarios are possible. 1) An optimistic scenario: Europeans develop a common fiscal policy and the ECB supports weak countries. 2) Politicians muddle through and it’s not good but neither is it disastrous. Or 3) The scary scenario: Italy defaults messily and the European markets are badly depressed. “In that scenario even East Asia would have a lot of contagion,” according to Nightingale, who thought the second option – of muddling through – was the most likely to become reality.

But Europe’s difficulties create opportunities for others. Kirill Dmitriev, the CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund argued that the emerging markets can be agents of growth. Right now, he said, Russia is implementing the largest privatization program in its history and it welcomes foreign investment. “Capitalism is only twenty years old but the government is decisive and focused,” he said. Referring obliquely to Europe and the US he added, “In Russia there is no paralysis of decision-making. Once decisions are made they quickly get implemented and in a time of crisis that’s a big benefit.”

Such change brings its own complications. Dr. Jerry Webman,C hief Economist at Oppenheimer Funds noted that when it comes to new companies in East Asia, the investing experience can sometimes be fraught. Micro-investment decisions are hindered by macro-factors that may be cultural or legal, and he mentioned the issues around intellectual property rights as one striking example.

Despite the current problems, there was still some optimism about the future of western economies. Nightingale urged the audience not to underestimate the US. Congress is dysfunctional, he admitted – but anyone who doubts the ability of the American economy to regenerate itself is making a mistake. “At the end of the 1980s everybody said the US was finished,” he pointed out. “Japan was going to conquer the world. Sadly Japan has never really recovered [from the nineties slump], but the US did. It came up with the internet.”

The takeaway from the panel was to keep things in perspective, and not to become overly preoccupied with Europe’s problems. Nightingale offered his listeners some advice: “When markets slump it brings opportunities – so I would be alert to those.”

That matter dispensed with he moved to weightier topics. Obama praised the outcomes that had been agreed on at the G20 summit earlier this month. “I was pleased to see that European leaders were taking seriously the need to solve not just the Greek crisis but also the broader European crisis,” he said.

Like other speakers at the APEC CEO summit he felt that the end is not quite in sight. “We’re not going to see massive growth in Europe till the problem is resolved. That will have a dampening effect on the overall economy.” But as long as the problems are contained, this presents an opportunity for growth for APEC. In a time when the rest of the world struggles, the Asia-Pacific region is more important to the US than ever before.

Obama said he was happy with the progress of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. In such an extraordinarily diverse region it offers the potential to resolve trade issues of the past and those that may emerge in the future. If it succeeds, he thought that the TPP could be a model not just for the Asia-Pacific, but also for the wider world.

On China, he accepted that some tensions continue, since the US, like many countries, both competes with China and wants to engage with it. The issues loom especially large in intellectual property, where America’s main advantage lies in its innovation and its patents. In this realm and in others like procurement and currency, China does not play fair.

However, the President was supportive of the changes that are taking place in China. “We should be rooting for China to grow,” he suggested. “Now only does that present an enormous marketplace for American businesses and exports; but to see so many millions of people lifted out of poverty is a remarkable achievement.”

He addressed some misperceptions about his administration’s activities, which he said he had noticed in the business press, arguing that he has issued fewer new regulations than the previous two governments. In addition, he said he has engaged in regulatory look-back, re-examining certain topics and removing rules that had become out of date.

For the audience back home, Obama had one more message. There have been times when Americans may question their influence. This has been true over the past decade, during which the US has been involved in military conflicts and stricken by economic woes. “One of the things I’m encouraged about is the eagerness of countries to see the US re-engaged in this region,” he stated.

American leadership is still welcomed, although the nature of that leadership may have shifted a little.

“I am very proud of the leadership America has shown in the past but I also don’t want people to underestimate the leadership we are showing now,” he said. ‘We are poised to work in a spirit of mutual interest and mutual respect with countries around the world.”