In Zimbabwe, climate-driven migration has already started. The country has experienced droughts for the past three decades – poor conditions for a state where up to 70% of its people make a living from agriculture. Fights have already broken out between farmers, migrants, and leaders over the limited resources available in the country. Oftentimes, the most vulnerable individuals are the least able to relocate. Minority groups are also disproportionately impacted, with the UN estimating that 80% of people displaced by climate change are women.

Dealing with the climate-induced migration challenge will require actions on the domestic and international front. At the national level, climate adaptation interventions will be key. It will be particularly important to protect from storms and floods, as these two currently account for 95% of environmental-related migration globally.

Internationally, climate change is likely to further aggravate geopolitical tensions as countries work to secure access to key resources. For example, according to the National Intelligence Council, 60% of surface water resources in the MENA region are transboundary while nearly half of the world’s waters and river basins lack cooperative management agreements and conflict resolution mechanisms.

Efforts will also be needed to properly protect those having to leave their country because of climate-related impacts. Few international climate migrants will fit the traditional definition of a refugee, for example, and how to deal with them remains an evolving field of international law.

Still, the best way to deal with climate migrants will be to deliver the Paris Agreement. According to the World Bank’s latest analysis, this could reduce climate-induce migration by 80% to 44 million people by 2050 (from the 216 million estimated previously). As the French saying goes ‘prévenir vaut mieux que guérir’ (prevention is often the best remedy).

A Change of Climate