Unlike the early days of the pandemic, where the approach was somewhat uniform, we are now seeing governments take vastly different approaches to their pandemic restriction policies. For instance, Sweden, Denmark and Norway recently announced they were lifting all COVID restrictions while the U.K. has eliminated testing requirements for travelers and will lift all restrictions starting April 1st. Meanwhile other countries, including New Zealand, South Koreaand Indonesia, have tightened pandemic restrictions and countries such as Hong Kong and Singapore are not easing their travel requirements. Hong Kong is even planning a “testing blitz”of the entire city of 7.5 million.

These varied approaches to Covid-19 are increasingly not being made solely on the basis of COVID infection rate or vaccination rates. In Sweden, for example, record numbers were testing positive for the Omicron variant shortly before Covid rules were lifted at a national level. In addition, slightly over 85% of South Koreans are fully vaccinated (as of Feb 13) compared to the 72% of UK citizens.

Rather, governments are making new value judgements about how to weigh potential lives saved from restrictions against potential harms, including job loss, declines in mental health, and economic contraction. Researchers across disciplines are actively working to understand these trade-offs, but they can be difficult to measure. For example, while lockdowns and other restrictions on social interactions appear correlated with declines in GDP, other factors could be at play, including personal choice (which may be informed by social pressure and cultural norms). However, preliminary research does suggest that these trade-offs are a real concern. For example, the National Bureau of Economic Research estimates lockdown-induced economic contraction in lower-income countries led to an average of 1.76 child deaths for every Covid-19 fatality averted.

Research is still ongoing about the degree to which lockdowns and other pandemic restrictions helped to contain the spread of, and reduce the deaths from COVID. Several working papers have failed to find health benefits arising from lockdown policies, but all are careful to suggest that the absence of conclusive evidence is not proof of the absence of causality. Interestingly, for both enhancing public trust and minimizing disruptions to supply chains as well as other economic losses, there is research that suggests that stricter initial lockdowns are preferable provided they are time-limited and disease spread is contained.

Nevertheless, there are some things that science has strongly shown to be true, one being that vaccinations really do help to stem the spread and severity of COVID. Though vaccines have been less effective at warding off Omicron, there is a stark gap in terms of death between the vaccinated and unvaccinated across variants. Fortunately, over half of the world’s population has now been fully vaccinated — an unprecedented feat and something that gives us hope as we continue on this wild ride.

Restriction Rollercoaster